Ukutshintsha kwemozulu ngowona mceli mngeni wexesha lethu. Le kholamu yazisa umba okhethekileyo we-“Journal of Economic Geography” emalunga nokutshintsha kwemozulu, ebonelela ngesiseko sokwenza izigqibo zobulumko ngokuxoxa ngemixholo emibini ephambili yejografi yezoqoqosho yokutshintsha kwemozulu. Okokuqala, utshintsho lwemozulu luya kuvelisa iziphumo ezingafaniyo kuzo zonke iindawo. Okwesibini, inkalo ephambili yokulungelelaniswa komntu nokutshintsha kwemozulu kukuhamba kwendawo. Ngoko ke, izithintelo ekuhambeni ziya kwandisa iindleko zentlalo noqoqosho lokutshintsha kwemozulu. Olunye uhlengahlengiso oluqukiweyo kulo mbandela lubandakanya ukuchuma, ubungcali, kunye norhwebo.
Nokuba kusenziwa inyathelo elikhawulezayo, iqondo lobushushu bomhlaba kwi-2100 linokuba ngu-3 ° C ngaphezulu ngaphezulu kwexesha lokubhalwa (Tollefson 2020). Ke ngoko, ukutshintsha kwemozulu ngumceli mngeni wexesha lethu (ilahleko yezityalo nezilwanyana ezohlukeneyo ingxamisekile ngokulinganayo). Iimeko ezikhutshwe yi-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) zibonelela ngemizekelo entsonkothileyo yentsebenziswano entsonkothileyo phakathi kwezinto ezenziwa ngabantu kunye nemozulu. Nangona kunjalo, ukumodareyithwa kwabo kweziphumo zesithuba esingafaniyo kunye nemiphetho emininzi echatshazelwa yile nto iselula ngokufanelekileyo (uCruz noRossi-Hansberg 2021a, 2021b). Ukujongana neenkxalabo zika-Oswald kunye no-Sternâ ????s (2019) kunye nokulandelela imizamo yakutshanje, njengomcimbi okhethekileyo wejenali yomgaqo-nkqubo wezoqoqosho (Azmat et al., 2020), siqokelele amanqaku amahlanu kwintsha Ijenali yomgaqo-nkqubo wezoqoqosho iphepha elikhethekileyo. IJografi yezoQoqosho (i-JoEG) inceda ukujongana nezi ntsilelo kunye nokujongana nemiba ebalulekileyo yemixholo emibini ephambili yejografi yezoqoqosho yokutshintsha kwemozulu. 1 Okokuqala, iziphumo zokutshintsha kwemozulu ziyahlukahlukana ngokwendawo. Ngapha koko, eminye imimandla yehlabathi iya kuphulukana nabantu abaninzi kunye nemveliso yomntu ngamnye kuneminye, kwaye eminye imimandla inokuba ngcono ngenxa yoku. Amaphepha aliqela kolu shicilelo lukhethekileyo abhala oku kungafaniyo ngokomlinganiselo womhlaba olungileyo. Umzekelo, uMzobo woku-1 uxela utshintsho oluqikelelweyo lobushushu olubangelwa kukunyuka kweqondo lobushushu nge-1°C kwihlabathi kwisisombululo se-1° x 1° kwiminyaka engama-2200.2. Ukungafani okubangelwayo kuyamangalisa. Okwesibini, abantu (kunye nezinye iintlobo) kufuneka baziqhelanise ukuze baphile. Uluhlu lwezenzo zokunciphisa utshintsho lwemozulu lubandakanya ukunciphisa amandla ekhabhoni kunye nemethane yeendlela zokusetyenziswa kunye neenkqubo zokuvelisa. Amaphepha amaninzi kulo mbandela ukhethekileyo agxininisa ukuziqhelanisa nokufuduka kunye nokuhamba kwejografi. Ngokukodwa, la maphepha agxininisa indlela ukungabikho kokuhamba kunokunyusa iindleko zentlalo nezoqoqosho zokutshintsha kwemozulu.
Kwiphepha lokuqala kwiphepha elikhethekileyo, uConte, uDesmet, uNagy, kunye noRossi-Hansberg (2021a; bona kwakhona Conte et al., 2021b) bathethe ngezi zihloko zimbini zingasentla, kwaye salungiselela le kholamu yeVox ngokwemibono yabo. Umbhali wazisa imodeli yokukhula yendawo eguqukayo yobungakanani, kanye njengomsebenzi wobuvulindlela kaWilliam Nordhaus (1993), ophawulwa ngobudlelwane obubini phakathi komsebenzi wezoqoqosho, ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni, kunye nobushushu. Okubalulekileyo, uhlalutyo luvumela amacandelo amabini (ezolimo kunye ne-non-agricultural) anovakalelo kwi-heterogeneity ye-heterogeneity kunye nokubola okuhle kakhulu kwendawo. Ababhali banikeze imodeli yabo ngedatha malunga nabemi behlabathi, ubushushu, kunye nemveliso yecandelo. Isisombululo ngu-1 ° x 1 °, kunye nokunyuka kokugcinwa kwekhabhoni kunye nokushisa kwehlabathi emva kwe-carbon-intensive IPCC scenario (ebizwa ngokuba yi-concentration yommeli) yi-8.5. Besebenzisa imodeli enjalo elinganisiweyo, bayivumela ukuba iqhube iminyaka engama-200 ukulinganisa ukungafani kwendawo yokutshintsha kwemozulu kuluntu, i-GDP ngomntu ngamnye, kunye nomxube wemveliso yezolimo kunye nemveliso engeyiyo ezolimo. Bakwagxininisa indima yorhwebo kunye nokufuduka ekunciphiseni okanye ekwandiseni ilahleko ngeyunithi ye-1 ° x 1 ° yendawo ebangelwa kukutshintsha kwemozulu.
Umboniso wokuqala weConte et al. (2021a) Cinga ukuba ingxabano phakathi kwabemi kunye nokuhamba kwempahla yorhwebo ihlala ihleli ngokuhamba kwexesha. Imodeli yabo iqikelela ukuba abantu baseScandinavia, eFinland, eSiberia nakumantla eKhanada baya kwanda, kwaye ingeniso yomntu ngamnye iya kwanda. UMntla Afrika, uSingasiqithi weArabia, umntla weIndiya, iBrazil, noMbindi Merika uya kuba nokwahluka kwezi nkalo zombini. ukuhla. Umzobo we-2 uvelisa kwakhona uMzobo 6 kwiphepha labo, echaza impembelelo yokutshintsha kwemozulu kubantu abaqikelelweyo ngo-2200. Ulimo luye lwagxila kakhulu kwi-space kwaye lwafudukela kuMbindi we-Asia, e-China, naseKhanada. Ezi meko zithetha inani elikhulu lokushukuma kwabemi ngaphakathi naphakathi kwamazwe, ngakumbi xa iindleko zorhwebo ziphezulu. Ngoko ke, imiqobo ekuhambeni inokubangela ukuncipha okukhulu ekusebenzeni.
Qaphela: Eli nani libonisa i-logarithm yabantu abaqikelelweyo be-2,200 xa bethelekiswa nabantu abaqikelelweyo ngokungabikho kotshintsho lwemozulu. Inani labantu bommandla oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka kulindeleke ukuba libe ngaphezulu kokuphindwe kabini; indawo emnyama ebomvu kulindeleke ukuba ilahlekelwe ngaphezu kwesiqingatha sabemi bayo.
Amaphepha eCastells-Quitana, Krause, kunye noMcDermott (2021) ancedisa lo msebenzi ngeendlela ezimbini. Okokuqala, ibonelela ngohlalutyo lokubuyela umva ukulinganisa impembelelo yokutshintsha kwemozulu yangaphambili ekufudukeni ezidolophini-maphandleni (jonga kwakhona iPeri kunye neSasahara 2019a, 2019b), kunye neConte et al. (2021a) ikakhulu ngumsebenzi wokuxela kwangaphambili. Okwesibini, yafunda iziphumo zexesha elide (1950-2015) imvula kunye nenguqu yobushushu kwizinga lokuhlala ezidolophini kunye nesakhiwo sezixeko ezikhulu kumazwe ahlukeneyo. Okubalulekileyo, zivumela iziphumo ezichaseneyo phakathi kwamazwe anengeniso ephantsi, ingeniso ephakathi, kunye nanengeniso ephezulu, kwaye afunde ifuthe kubume belizwe bedolophu kunye nobukhulu bedolophu, ukuxinana, kunye nefom. Baye bafumanisa ukuba kumazwe aneemeko zemozulu ezingathandekiyo zokuqala, iimeko zemozulu eziba mandundu (ubushushu obuphezulu kunye nemvula ephantsi) zinxulumene namazinga aphezulu okufudukela ezidolophini, kwaye ezi ziphumo zomelele ngakumbi kumazwe asakhasayo kwaye zichaphazela imida eyahlukeneyo yoxinaniso kunye nokukhula kwezixeko, kubandakanya iindawo ezinkulu zemetropolitan.
Enye inkalo ebalulekileyo encedisa impembelelo yezoqoqosho yokutshintsha kwemozulu yimpembelelo yayo kwiingxabano zentlalo kunye neengxabano. Iphepha likaBosetti, Cattaneo, kunye nePeri (2021) lihlalutye ukuba ukufuduka komda phakathi kwe-1960 kunye ne-2000 kuthintele ikhonkco phakathi kokunyuka kwamaqondo okushisa kunye neengxabano kumazwe angama-126. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu kunye nembalela rhoqo kuya kwandisa ukunqongophala kwemithombo yendawo, ngaloo ndlela kuchaphazela ukubakho kweengxabano zendawo (umzekelo, uHsiang et al., 2011). Ngakolunye uhlangothi, imodeli yezoqoqosho yokufudukela kwamanye amazwe nguConte et al. (2021a) ibonisa ukuba ngenxa yokuhla kwemveliso ngenxa yokutshintsha kwemozulu, ukuhamba kunciphisa ukulahlekelwa kwezoqoqosho. Bosetti et al. Ukudibanisa le mibono mibini, ibonisa ukuba kumazwe ahluphekileyo, amathuba okungqubuzana kwangaphakathi ahambelana ngokufanelekileyo nokushisa, kwaye oku kulungelelaniswa kunamandla ngakumbi kumazwe anotyekelo oluphantsi lokufuduka. Ukufudukela kwelinye ilizwe njenge "valve yokuphunyuka" kuphantsi koxinzelelo lwezoqoqosho. Ukunciphisa uxinzelelo lwabemi kumazwe asakhasayo apho imveliso yezolimo iyehla kubonakala kuyindlela esebenzayo yokunciphisa umngcipheko wokuba le mimandla ibe yimilo yasekuhlaleni.
Impembelelo yokutshintsha kwemozulu ekuchumeni ayizange ihlolwe. Isisombululo sale ngxaki liphepha likaGreen (2021), eliphonononga ubudlelwane phakathi kweemeko zemozulu kunye notshintsho lwabantu eUnited States ukusuka kwi-1870 ukuya kwi-1930. amakhaya asezifama nangezizo iifama. Kwiindawo zasemaphandleni, xa utshintsho lwemozulu kunye nokungaqiniseki kwandisa utshintsho kwimveliso yezolimo, ukusetyenziswa kwabantwana kunika izibonelelo ezongezelelweyo; ngoko ke, imizi yasemaphandleni inokunyusa izinga lokuchuma, kwaye le ndlela ayisebenzi kwimizi yasezidolophini.
Ukutshintsha kwemozulu kukhokelela ekunyukeni kwamaqondo olwandle kunye nezitshingitshane nezitshingitshane. Iindawo ezingaselunxwemeni ziyingozi kakhulu. 3 Sebenzisa indlela yokucinga ngokusondeleyo kuConte et al. (2021a), uDesmet et al. (2021) Qikelela iindleko zoqoqosho zezikhukula zaselunxwemeni. Iphepha le-Indaco, i-Ortega, kunye ne-Taspinar (2021) kwi-JoEG inqaku elikhethekileyo lincedisa iphepha ngokubhala impembelelo yeNkanyamba uSandy kwishishini leSixeko saseNew York. Izikhukula ngo-2021 zikhokelele ekuncitshisweni kwengqesho (malunga ne-4% kwi-avareji) kunye nemivuzo (malunga ne-2% kwi-avareji), kwaye impembelelo yaseBrooklyn neQueens yayinkulu kuneyaseManhattan. Ezi ziphumo zahlukeneyo zibonisa ukungafani kobuqatha bezikhukula kunye nokwakhiwa kweshishini.
UDe Smet et al. (2021) Uphuhlise imodeli kwintsapho efanayo noConte et al. (2021a) Kuqikelelwa ukuba ilahleko yezoqoqosho ebangelwa yisikhukula sonxweme kwi-2200 iya kunyuka ukusuka kwi-0.11% yengeniso yangempela xa impendulo yokufuduka ivunyelwe kwi-4.5% xa impendulo ingavumelekanga. Amanye amaphepha amathathu kulo mba ukhethekileyo nawo agxininise kwindima yokufuduka njengendlela yokuziqhelanisa nokutshintsha kwemozulu.
Castells-Quitana et al. (2021) Ukufuduka okubhaliweyo ukusuka kwiindawo zasemaphandleni ukuya kwizixeko ezingaphakathi kwemida yelizwe, kwaye kugxininise ukuhamba njengamandla achaphazela iziphumo zokufudukela ezidolophini zokutshintsha kwemozulu. Bosetti et al. (2021) uhlalutya indlela ukufuduka komda phakathi kwe-1960 kunye ne-2000 kuthintele ikhonkco phakathi kokufudumala kunye neengxabano kumazwe angama-126. I-4 Ukufudukela kwelinye ilizwe kunciphisa impembelelo yokunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu malunga nokuba nokwenzeka kongquzulwano oluxhobileyo, ngelixa unganyusi amathuba okungqubuzana kumazwe angabamelwane (ukufuduka) kumazwe.
Ukushukuma kubalulekile kwiinkampani nabaqeshi. Indak et al. (2021) ibonisa ukuba amashishini aqhelana nemingcipheko yezikhukhula ngokufudusa amaziko, kwaye amanye amashishini anokuzuza kwizikhukula. Ukukwazi ukufuduka kuxhomekeke kwicandelo lezoshishino, kodwa ngokubanzi, ukuhamba kwenkampani kwakhona igumbi eliphambili lokulungelelanisa nokutshintsha kwemozulu.
Conte et al. (2021a) Kukwafunyaniswa ukuba ukufudukela kwelinye ilizwe kunye norhwebo luthatha indawo. Ukruthakruthwano oluphezulu lwezorhwebo lungumqobo kumxube wemveliso yasekhaya ukuqhelanisa nokutshintsha kwemozulu, kuba ukutshintshela ekuzixhaseni kuthintela ukusetyenziswa kweenzuzo zokuthelekisa ezikhulayo zommandla. Oku kukhuthaza ukufuduka kwiindawo ezichaphazeleka kakubi kakhulu ukuya kwiindawo ezichatshazelwa kancinci kukunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu. Okubangela umdla kukuba, le mimandla igxile kwimveliso ephezulu eYurophu, eJapan, naseUnited States. Ngoko ke, iindleko zorhwebo eziphezulu aziyi kukhokelela kwiindleko eziphezulu zemozulu.
Umsebenzi wamva nje we-Cruz kunye noRossi-Hansberg (2021a, 2021b) ukwayongezelelwa kuConte et al. (2021a), ngokuqwalasela eminye imiphetho emibini yotshintsho olubangelwa yimozulu: ukuthuthuzela nokuzala. Nangona ingekaphononongwa ngokupheleleyo, ijelo lokuchuma likwindawo esembindini kwiphepha leGreen's (2021). UGrimm uhlalutye iyantlukwano yokuchuma phakathi kwamakhaya asezifama nangezizo iifama kwingingqi ekuhambeni kwexesha ukumisela impembelelo engunobangela wokuna kwemvula nemingcipheko yembalela kutshintsho lwabantu. Ufumanise ukuba umahluko kumazinga okuchuma kwiindawo ezinotshintsho olukhulu kwimvula uphezulu kakhulu kuneendawo ezinotshintsho oluncinci kwimvula. Okubangela umdla kukuba, esi siphumo sanyamalala xa ukunkcenkceshela kunye noomatshini bezolimo benza buthathaka ikhonkco phakathi kweenguqu zemvula kunye nesivuno.
Ekugqibeleni, kufuneka sihlalutye uluhlu lweziphumo ezinzima zokutshintsha kwemozulu kuqoqosho kunye noluntu. Akufunekanga siqwalasele kuphela iziteshi, iindlela, kunye ne-heterogeneity ekhokelela ekuqondeni impembelelo, kodwa kunye nezifundo zecala kunye nohlalutyo olujoliswe ngakumbi. Enye okanye ezininzi zazo, kwaye zinike iinkcukacha kunye ne-causality. Siqokelele amaphepha adibeneyo adibanisa ezi ndlela zimbini kule ncwadana ekhethekileyo yeJournal ye-Economic Geography. Siyathemba ukuba la maphepha aya kukhuthaza uphando kunye nokusebenzisana ngakumbi phakathi kwe-microeconomists kunye ne-macroeconomists abafunda imiphumo yokutshintsha kwemozulu.
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2 Eli nani livelisa umfanekiso wesi-5 kwiphepha nguConte Desmet, uNagy, noRossi-Hansberg (2021). Siyababulela aba babhali ngokwabelana nathi ngedatha yabo.
3 Lin et al. (2021a, 2021b) irekhoda ukwanda okothusayo (ukusuka kwi-12% ukuya kwi-14%) yezindlu ezakhiwe kwiindawo eziselunxwemeni ezisengozini yezikhukula ecaleni kweAtlantiki kunye neGulf of Mexico phakathi kwe-1990 kunye ne-2010. I-Balboni (2019) yabonisa ukuba utyalo-mali oludlulileyo Iziseko ezingundoqo zinokuchaza ukuqhubeka kobukho bezixeko eziselunxwemeni.
4 Yohe kunye Schelsinger (2002) kunye Cattaneo et al. (2019) ikwarekhode impendulo yokufudukela ezidolophini ekunyukeni kwamaqondo obushushu; UCattaneo noPeri (2015, 2016) barekhoda impendulo yokufuduka kwamanye amazwe.
Ixesha lokuposa: Oct-12-2021
