Kusintha kwanyengo ndiye vuto lalikulu la nthawi yathu ino. Ndimeyi ikupereka nkhani yapadera ya "Journal of Economic Geography" yokhudzana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo, yomwe imapereka maziko opangira zisankho mwanzeru pokambirana mitu iwiri ikuluikulu yokhudzana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo. Choyamba, kusintha kwa nyengo kumabweretsa zotsatira zosiyanasiyana m'malo osiyanasiyana. Chachiwiri, mbali yofunika kwambiri ya kusintha kwa nyengo ndi kusintha kwa malo. Choncho, zoletsa kuyenda zidzakulitsa mtengo wa chikhalidwe ndi chuma cha kusintha kwa nyengo. Zosintha zina zomwe zafotokozedwa m'nkhaniyi zikuphatikiza chonde, ukadaulo, ndi malonda.
Ngakhale ndikuchitapo kanthu mwachangu, kutentha kwa dziko lapansi mu 2100 kumatha kukhala osachepera 3 ° C kuposa nthawi yolemba (Tollefson 2020). Choncho, kusintha kwa nyengo ndi vuto lalikulu la nthawi yathu (kutayika kwa mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya zamoyo ndikofunikanso). Zochitika zoperekedwa ndi gulu la Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) zimapereka zitsanzo zovuta za kuyanjana kovutirapo pakati pa zochita za anthu ndi nyengo. Komabe, kutengera kwawo kwachilengedwe kosiyanasiyana komanso mbali zingapo zomwe zakhudzidwa ndi izi ndizosavuta (Cruz ndi Rossi-Hansberg 2021a, 2021b). Kuti tithane ndi nkhawa za Oswald ndi Sternâ????s (2019) ndikutsata zomwe zachitika posachedwa, monga nkhani yapadera ya nyuzipepala ya Economic Policy (Azmat et al., 2020), tasonkhanitsa zolemba zisanu zatsopano. Economic Policy magazine pepala lapadera. Economic Geography (JoEG) imathandiza kuthana ndi zofookazi ndikuwongolera mbali zofunika za mitu iwiri ikuluikulu ya chikhalidwe cha zachuma cha kusintha kwa nyengo. 1 Choyamba, zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo ndizosiyana mosiyanasiyana. Kenako, madera ena padziko lapansi adzataya anthu ochulukirapo komanso kuchuluka kwa anthu kuposa ena, ndipo zigawo zina zitha kukhala bwino chifukwa cha izi. Mapepala angapo m'magazini yapaderayi amalemba zosiyanazi pamlingo wabwino wa malo. Mwachitsanzo, Chithunzi 1 chikunena za kusintha kwa kutentha komwe kunanenedweratu chifukwa cha kuwonjezeka kwa kutentha kwa 1 ° C padziko lonse pa 1 ° x 1 ° m'zaka 2200.2. Chifukwa chosiyana ndi chodabwitsa. Chachiwiri, anthu (ndi zamoyo zina) ayenera kusintha kuti akhale ndi moyo. Zochita zingapo zochepetsera kusintha kwanyengo zikuphatikiza kuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa kaboni ndi methane pamagwiritsidwe ntchito ndi njira zopangira. Mapepala angapo m'magazini yapaderayi amatsindika za kusintha kwa kusamuka ndi kusamuka kwa malo. Makamaka, mapepalawa akugogomezera momwe kusowa kwa kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe kabwino kake
Mu pepala loyamba la magazini yapadera, Conte, Desmet, Nagy, ndi Rossi-Hansberg (2021a; onaninso Conte et al., 2021b) adalankhula za mitu iwiri yomwe ili pamwambapa, ndipo tidakonza gawo ili la Vox malinga ndi momwe amaonera. Wolembayo adayambitsa njira yowonjezereka ya kukula kwa malo, monga ntchito yoyamba ya William Nordhaus (1993), yomwe imadziwika ndi ubale wa njira ziwiri pakati pa zochitika zachuma, mpweya wa carbon, ndi kutentha. Chofunika kwambiri, kusanthula kumalola magawo awiri (zaulimi ndi osakhala aulimi) omwe amakhudzidwa ndi kutentha kwa kutentha komanso kuwonongeka kwabwino kwambiri kwa malo. Olembawo adapereka chitsanzo chawo ndi deta pa chiwerengero cha anthu padziko lonse lapansi, kutentha, ndi zotsatira za gawo. Kusamvana ndi 1 ° x 1 °, ndipo kuwonjezeka kwa kusungirako kaboni ndi kutentha kwapadziko lonse potsatira zochitika za IPCC za carbon-intensive (zotchedwa nthumwi yoimira) ndi 8.5. Pogwiritsa ntchito chitsanzo chovomerezeka chotere, adachilola kuti chiziyenda kwa zaka 200 kuti athe kuwerengera kusiyana kwa kusintha kwa nyengo pa chiwerengero cha anthu, GDP pa munthu aliyense, komanso kusakanikirana kwa ulimi ndi zosagwirizana ndi ulimi. Iwo adatsindikanso za ntchito yamalonda ndi kusamuka pochepetsa kapena kukulitsa kutayika pa gawo la 1 ° x 1 ° mlengalenga chifukwa cha kusintha kwa nyengo.
Chiwonetsero choyambirira cha Conte et al. (2021a) Ganizirani kuti kusamvana pakati pa kuchuluka kwa anthu ndi kuyenda kwa zinthu kumakhala kosalekeza pakapita nthawi. Chitsanzo chawo chikulosera kuti chiwerengero cha anthu a ku Scandinavia, Finland, Siberia, ndi kumpoto kwa Canada chidzawonjezeka, ndipo ndalama za munthu aliyense zidzawonjezeka. Kumpoto kwa Africa, Arabiya Peninsula, kumpoto kwa India, Brazil, ndi Central America adzakhala ndi kusiyana kwina mbali zonse ziwiri. kuchepa. Chithunzi 2 chikuwonetsanso Chithunzi 6 m'mapepala awo, kufotokoza zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo pa chiwerengero cha anthu chomwe chinanenedweratu mu 2200. Ulimi wakhazikika kwambiri mumlengalenga ndipo unasamukira ku Central Asia, China, ndi Canada. Zochitikazi zikutanthawuza kuchuluka kwa chiwerengero cha anthu mkati ndi pakati pa mayiko, makamaka pamene ndalama zamalonda zimakhala zokwera. Chifukwa chake, zolepheretsa kuyenda zingapangitse kuchepa kwakukulu kwa magwiridwe antchito.
Chidziwitso: Chiwerengerochi chikuwonetsa kuchuluka kwa chiwerengero cha anthu 2,200 omwe adanenedweratu poyerekezera ndi kuchuluka komwe kunanenedweratu pakapanda kusintha kwanyengo. Chiwerengero cha anthu a m'dera lakuda buluu chikuyembekezeka kuwirikiza kawiri; malo ofiira akuda akuyembekezeka kutaya oposa theka la anthu ake.
Mapepala a Castells-Quitana, Krause, and McDermott (2021) amawonjezera ntchitoyi m'njira ziwiri. Choyamba, imapereka kuwunika kobwerezabwereza kuti athe kuwunika momwe kusintha kwanyengo kwam'mbuyomu kukukhudzira anthu akumidzi akumidzi (onaninso Peri ndi Sasahara 2019a, 2019b), ndi Conte et al. (2021a) makamaka ntchito zolosera. Kachiwiri, idaphunzira zotsatira za mvula yanthawi yayitali (1950-2015) komanso kusintha kwa kutentha pakukula kwa mizinda komanso kapangidwe ka mizinda yayikulu m'maiko osiyanasiyana. Chofunika kwambiri, amalola kuti pakhale zotsatira zosiyana pakati pa mayiko omwe amapeza ndalama zochepa, omwe ali ndi ndalama zapakati, komanso omwe amapeza ndalama zambiri, ndikuphunzira momwe dziko limakhudzira mizinda yonse komanso kukula kwa tawuni, kachulukidwe, ndi mawonekedwe. Iwo adapeza kuti m'mayiko omwe ali ndi nyengo yoipa poyamba, nyengo ikuipiraipira (kutentha kwambiri ndi mvula yochepa) ikugwirizana ndi kukwera kwa mizinda, ndipo zotsatira zake zimakhala zolimba kwambiri m'mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene ndipo zimakhudza Miyeso yosiyanasiyana ya kachulukidwe ndi kukula kwa mizinda, kuphatikizapo mizinda yayikulu kwambiri.
Chinthu chinanso chofunikira chomwe chimathandizana ndi zotsatira za zachuma za kusintha kwa nyengo ndi zotsatira zake pa mikangano ya anthu ammudzi ndi mikangano. Pepala lolembedwa ndi Bosetti, Cattaneo, and Peri (2021) lidasanthula ngati kusamukira kumalire pakati pa 1960 ndi 2000 kudakhudza kulumikizana pakati pa kukwera kwa kutentha ndi mikangano m'maiko 126. Kumbali imodzi, kukwera kwa kutentha ndi chilala chochulukirachulukira kudzakulitsa kusowa kwa zinthu zakumaloko, potero kusokoneza kuthekera kwa mikangano yakumaloko (mwachitsanzo, Hsiang et al., 2011). Kumbali inayi, chitsanzo cha zachuma cha anthu othawa kwawo ndi Conte et al. (2021a) ikuwonetsa kuti chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa zokolola chifukwa cha kusintha kwa nyengo, kuyenda kumachepetsa kuwonongeka kwachuma. Bosetti et al. Kuphatikiza zidziwitso ziwirizi, zimatsimikizira kuti m'mayiko osauka, mwayi wa mkangano wamkati umagwirizana bwino ndi kutentha, ndipo mgwirizanowu ndi wamphamvu kwambiri m'mayiko omwe ali ndi chizolowezi chochepa chosamukira. Kusamukira kudziko lina monga "valve yopulumukira" kuli pansi pa zovuta zachuma. Kuchepetsa chiwopsezo cha anthu m'mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene kumene ulimi ukuchepa kukuwoneka kuti ndi njira yabwino yochepetsera chiopsezo cha maderawa kukhala mikangano ya m'deralo.
Zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo pa kubereka sizinafufuzidwe. Njira yothetsera vutoli ndi pepala la Green (2021), lomwe limayang'ana mgwirizano pakati pa kugwedezeka kwa nyengo ndi kusintha kwa chiwerengero cha anthu ku United States kuchokera ku 1870 mpaka 1930. nyumba zaulimi ndi zosakhala zaulimi. M'madera akumidzi, pamene kusintha kwa nyengo ndi kusatsimikizika kumawonjezera kusintha kwa zokolola zaulimi, ntchito ya ana imapereka zowonjezera; Choncho, mabanja akumidzi akhoza kuonjezera chiwerengero cha chonde, ndipo njirayi sigwira ntchito m'mabanja akumidzi.
Kusintha kwa nyengo kumabweretsa kukwera kwa madzi a m'nyanja komanso mphepo zamkuntho ndi mvula yamkuntho. Madera a m’mphepete mwa nyanja ndi oopsa kwambiri. 3 Gwiritsani ntchito njira yofikira pafupi ndi Conte et al. (2021a), Desmet et al. (2021) Linganizani mtengo wachuma chifukwa cha kusefukira kwa nyanja. Pepala lolembedwa ndi Indaco, Ortega, and Taspinar (2021) mu nkhani yapadera ya JoEG limakwaniritsa pepalali polemba zomwe mphepo yamkuntho Sandy imachita pabizinesi yaku New York City. Kusefukira kwa madzi mu 2021 kudapangitsa kuti ntchito zichepe (pafupifupi 4% pa avareji) ndi malipiro (pafupifupi 2%), ndipo kukhudzidwa kwa Brooklyn ndi Queens kunali kwakukulu kuposa ku Manhattan. Zotsatira zoyipa izi zikuwonetsa kusiyanasiyana kwa kuuma kwa kusefukira kwamadzi komanso kapangidwe kamakampani.
De Smet et al. (2021) Adapanga chitsanzo m'banja lomwelo Conte et al. (2021a) Zikuoneka kuti kuwonongeka kwachuma chifukwa cha kusefukira kwa nyanja ku 2200 kudzawonjezeka kuchokera ku 0.11% ya ndalama zenizeni pamene kuyankha kwa kusamuka kumaloledwa ku 4.5% pamene yankho sililoledwa. Mapepala ena atatu m'nkhani yapaderayi amaganiziranso za udindo wa anthu osamukira kudziko lina monga njira yosinthira kusintha kwa nyengo.
Castells-Quitana et al. (2021) Zolembedwa zosamukira kumadera akumidzi kupita kumizinda yomwe ili m'malire a mayiko, ndipo zimayang'ana kwambiri kuyenda ngati mphamvu yomwe ikukhudza zotsatira zakusintha kwanyengo kumatauni. Bosetti et al. (2021) ikuwunika momwe kusamukira kumalire pakati pa 1960 ndi 2000 kudakhudzira mgwirizano pakati pa kutentha ndi kusamvana m'maiko 126. 4 Immigration amachepetsa zotsatira za kutentha kukwera pa kuthekera kwa nkhondo, pamene osati kuwonjezera kuthekera kwa mikangano m'mayiko oyandikana (immigration) mayiko.
Kusuntha ndikofunikiranso kwamakampani ndi olemba anzawo ntchito. Indak et al. (2021) ikuwonetsa kuti mabizinesi akusintha kuti akumane ndi zoopsa za kusefukira kwa madzi posamutsa mabungwe, ndipo mabizinesi ena amathanso kupindula ndi kusefukira kwa madzi. Kutha kusamuka kumadalira gawo lazamalonda, koma kawirikawiri, kuyenda kwa kampaniyo ndi chipinda chofunikira chosinthira kusintha kwa nyengo.
Conte ndi al. (2021a) Zimapezekanso kuti kusamuka ndi malonda ndizolowa m'malo. Mkangano waukulu wamalonda ndi cholepheretsa kusakanikirana kwapangidwe kameneko kuti kugwirizane ndi kusintha kwa nyengo, chifukwa kusintha kwa kudzidalira kumalepheretsa kugwiritsa ntchito ubwino wofananitsa wa dera. Izi zimalimbikitsa kusamuka kuchokera kumadera omwe akhudzidwa kwambiri kupita kumadera omwe sakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi kukwera kwa kutentha. Chochititsa chidwi n'chakuti, maderawa ali ochuluka kwambiri ku Ulaya, Japan, ndi United States. Chifukwa chake, kukwera mtengo kwamalonda sikupangitsa kuti pakhale mitengo yokwera nthawi zonse.
Ntchito yaposachedwa ya Cruz ndi Rossi-Hansberg (2021a, 2021b) ndiwowonjezeranso kwa Conte et al. (2021a), poganizira mbali zina ziwiri za kusintha kwa nyengo: chitonthozo ndi chonde. Ngakhale sichinafufuzidwe bwino, njira yoberekera imakhala pamalo apakati pa pepala la Green's (2021). Grimm adasanthula kusiyana kwa chonde pakati pa mabanja omwe ali m'mafamu ndi omwe si afamu m'chigawocho kuti adziwe zomwe zimayambitsa mvula komanso chilala pakusintha kwa anthu. Anapeza kuti kusiyana kwa chiwerengero cha chonde m'madera omwe mvula imasintha kwambiri inali yaikulu kwambiri kusiyana ndi madera omwe mvula imasintha pang'ono. Chochititsa chidwi n’chakuti zimenezi zinazimiririka pamene ulimi wothirira ndi ulimi unafooketsa mgwirizano pakati pa kusintha kwa mvula ndi zokolola.
Pamapeto pake, tiyenera kusanthula zotsatira zovuta za kusintha kwa nyengo pazachuma ndi anthu. Sitiyenera kungoganizira za njira, njira, ndi zosiyana zomwe zimatitsogolera kuti timvetsetse momwe zimakhudzira, komanso maphunziro a zochitika ndi kusanthula kwamphamvu kwambiri. Mmodzi kapena angapo a iwo, ndi kupereka tsatanetsatane ndi causality. Tinasonkhanitsa mapepala ofunika kwambiri omwe anaphatikiza njira ziwirizi m'magazini yapaderayi ya Journal of Economic Geography. Tikukhulupirira kuti mapepalawa adzalimbikitsa kufufuza ndi kugwirizana kwambiri pakati pa microeconomists ndi macroeconomists omwe amaphunzira zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo.
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2 Chiwerengerochi chikulembanso chithunzi 5 papepala la Conte Desmet, Nagy, and Rossi-Hansberg (2021). Tikuthokoza olembawa chifukwa chogawana nafe deta yawo.
3 Lin et al. (2021a, 2021b) adalemba chiwonjezeko chowopsa (kuchokera ku 12% mpaka 14%) cha nyumba zomangidwa m'mphepete mwa nyanja zomwe zili pachiwopsezo cha kusefukira kwamadzi m'mphepete mwa nyanja ya Atlantic ndi Gulf of Mexico pakati pa 1990 ndi 2010. Balboni (2019) adanenanso kuti ndalama zakale zomangamanga zikhoza kufotokoza kupitirizabe kukhalapo kwa mizinda ya m'mphepete mwa nyanja.
4 Yohe ndi Schelsinger (2002) ndi Cattaneo et al. (2019) adalembanso kuyankha kwakukula kwamatauni pakuwonjezeka kwa kutentha; Cattaneo ndi Peri (2015, 2016) adalemba yankho la kusamuka kwa mayiko.
Nthawi yotumiza: Oct-12-2021
